WWSP's "The Alternate Boot!"

Saturday, May 02, 2009

Leap of Faith First Day of May

Some habits die hard. Especially the bad ones. And sometimes those bad habits are the ones that kill you. The first Saturday of May means The Kentucky Derby. I can't help it, I have to make the trek down to the betting parlor and give it a go today.

It's not exactly the best investment strategy in the world, although, all those Wall Street investors went down the tubes on some bad bets too.

Yesterday I plunked down my money to buy a Daily Racing Form. The only bible I believe in. So I'm already in the hole. It's all in black and white: the times, the conditions, the speed ratings, the jockeys, the breeding, the medications, etc. So many facts and so little intelligence with which interpret them.

I like the challenge of looking over past performance to predict future outcomes. It's like pretending to be Sherlock Holmes for a day. Inductive reasoning. There's the facts of the case and then we derive general principles. But of course, sometimes those general principles don't add up to a pile of manure.

Usually the fastest horse wins. Sounds simple. 19 or 20 horses running today. As always this race is wide-open. 3 year olds who have never run this distance before. And don't forget "racing luck."

And then you wonder, is what happens, the only thing that could happen? Is there some kind of destiny? Or is it only destiny after the fact?

Beats the hell out of me. I don't like touting horses. My personal idiosyncrasies should not be spread amongst the population. I just want to be on the record. I'm going with Dunkirk. A pricey yearling who is lightly raced. Looks to be getting better every time out. I'll be putting him in some exactas and trifectas too. If it's muddy I'll also include Friesan Fire in some combos.

Anyway this is what's called a Leap of Faith. I'm making the Leap! Look out below. Leapers fall hard!

1 comment:

  1. And who the hell could have predicted MTB? Best race I've ever seen (even in the movies).

    ReplyDelete

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