Trust Yourself, Then Again...

The Black Swan has me by the lapels and keeps throttling me.

Not sure if this is "provable" (although some studies from evolutionary psychologists are cited) but it certainly rings true...

"True, our knowledge does grow, but it is threatened by great increases in confidence, which make our increase in knowledge at the same time an increase in confusion, ignorance, and conceit." - Nassim Taleb

Other gems.

Be wary of the "experts" in bespoke suits.

And anyone who predicts the future.

We're really good at "explaining" what happened after it's happened. Not so good at seeing what is coming round the bend.

Our brains might be wired to actually help us deceive ourselves from our own incompetence.

Bad Brain!