Whither the Black Swan?!

Some Obama supporters are totally freaking out about Obama's debate performance and the Pew Poll that showed him now trailing Romney.

Me, I'm sticking with the mysterious Sam Wang.  He runs a site that does a "meta-analysis" of all the polls.  I guess his model did very well in the 2008 and 2010 elections.  So the math and the model still has Obama as the favorite.  That's reassuring to me.

But of course, election day is still a ways away.  And what of the Black Swan?  The Black Swan is the unforeseen event. Was that first debate a Black Swan?  Is there a Black Swan waiting to reveal itself? The Swan that we don't see, that we don't know, that we don't even thinks exists, can turn all expectations on their head... will there be a Black Swan?

I predict, definitely, maybe!