The Amazing Karnak!

Tomorrow, the first Saturday in May, means the Kentucky Derby. This is the 134th run for the roses. It's kind of an insane race. I've never actually been there except via the TV or racetrack remote. Usually there's a bunch of real good horses, I mean way too many, tomorrow if there are no scratches, there will be 20 contenders. I don't know if running thoroughbreds is a decadent thing. I don't know if the horses actually like to run or not.

I do know that all the horses running will be on lasix and bute and that's probably not a good thing. It used to be that drugs were not part of the equation, but over the years we've continued to drug up ourselves and everything around us, including perfectly healthy horses. They've been breeding these horses for many, many years, trying to combine speed and stamina, and lots of folks wonder if we've made a much more fragile breed. The track record for the Derby is still held by Secretariat in 1973. Every quarter clocked for Secretariat was actually faster than the last, which is really unique, usually horses go slower the longer they run, Secretariat ACCELERATED!

Anyway, the Derby is also the race that made Hunter S. Thompson's career. His famous dispatch in 1970 from the Derby, propelled him into Pop consciousness, it was his first collaboration with Ralph Steadman, and well, as they say, "the rest is history".

So I just downloaded a free copy of the past performances of the field from the Daily Racing Form (it is amazing what you can get from the net!) and at first glance it all looks like Greek or Egyptian hieroglyphics. There's lots of homework to do. I actually picked the winner in the last two Derbies (Street Sense and Barbaro), but really, that's kind of like tossing heads two times in a row. It just happened!

The horse that really jumps out is Big Brown, he's never lost, he's really fast, great speed figures, kind of likes to run on the front. But he is coming from the far outside, which is a real disadvantage. He will probably be the favorite, but with so many horses you'll still get pretty good odds. Still, I'm thinking I'm gonna take a pass on Big Brown.

Okay, damn the analysis - first thought, best thought --- I'll take Court Vision!

UPDATE: Okay, after my in-depth analysis, I'm changing my pick. There is a new factor to take into account - synthetic dirt! Yes, Virginia, synthetic dirt! It seems some tracks around the country now have a new type of dirt, supposedly designed to be easier on the horses. Not sure if it's all another American boondoggle or what. Since Churchill Downs in Kentucky still has the old regular kind of dirt - I'm going with horses who have won on that type of surface. So forget Court Vision, my picks in this order - 1. Pyro 2. Tale of Ekati 3. Eight Belles. I might throw Big Brown in on some gimmicks too. I like to dance the dance. Of course, I'm not recommending any of these picks to anyone. Gambling is a vice. I just want to be on the record - you know, posterity!