I finished the Black Swan book. It's excellent. I highly recommend it. It has kind of re-sharpened some of my inherent skepticism. Probably a healthy thing. And the message of the unknown unknown, improbability, luck and "we don't know jack shit," doesn't fill me with doom but instead possibility.
The world is a mysterious, wonderful and sometimes terrifying place. We try to make it sensible and rational - the herd wants things nice and neat, but of course they aren't, and that reality is hammered into us every single day.
We invent all kinds of theories and stories to kind of help us make it though the dark night. And that's okay, maybe even necessary, but we shouldn't mistake the theories and stories for the realities of our existence.
As they say, the map is not the territory.
We can close our eyes, or open them. It's our choice.